PreTell
Accurate Prepayment Scoring at the Loan Level
The industry’s most sophisticated prepayment scoring platform, LoanPerformance’s PreTell™ automatically provides current—even real-time—scoring that predicts the likelihood mortgages will prepay short-term with unprecedented accuracy. PreTell goes beyond traditional prepayment methodologies with advanced new analytics that scrutinize all influencing factors, from loan performance to property history and household demographics.
PreTell modeling generates a set of numerical scores ranging from 1 to 1000 that predict the likelihood an individual mortgage will prepay within a six-month forecast window—including "mover" and "refi" scores measuring the likelihood the payoff purpose is to sell or refinance the home and a "payoff" score combining the other two.
PreTell analyzes data from multiple sources to create loan-level prepayment scores unprecedented in predicting the future behavior of borrowers accurately. |
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Beyond “Black Box” Technology
PreTell is built on a revolutionary advance in mortgage analytics: neural networks controlled by statistical learning algorithms. What this means is that PreTell harnesses the power of neural networks—which are notorious for producing unverifiable “black box” results—with a new type of robust predictive modeling engine that delivers results you can easily decipher to see which variables affected an outcome and how.
Three-Dimensional Data
PreTell’s modeling engine evalutates a three-dimensional loan-level dataset that combines performance data from LoanPerformance databases with property tax roll data and household demographic data from three other industry-leading databases:
- First American
- Equifax
- Acxiom
This wealth of data powers a library of PreTell loan-type models that currently includes most popular loan types, with additional loan-type models in development and scheduled to become available as they are completed.
PreTell’s crystal-clear user interface lets business users and other non-specialists plan and execute sophisticated scoring programs with minimal hassle. |
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PreTell and Targeted Marketing
PreTell’s remarkable ability to predict short-term loan-level prepayments accurately gives it a unique and valuable talent—the ability to spot likely mortgage-related marketing prospects in otherwise unmanageably large lists. This capability enables PreTell to reduce costs dramatically for:
More about using PreTell to enhance mortgage marketing:
Customer Retention
PreTell’s ability to predict not only which loans will prepay short-term but why makes PreTell a potent customer retention tool. PreTell's Customer Retention Scores let retention managers rank likely prepays according to the additional likelihood they will sell their homes (and need new home loans) or seek a new source of capital (and need a HELOC or Second), enabling dramatic increases in retention success rates.
PreTell Customer Retention Scores make possible:
- Retention planning based on the ranking of customers likely to sell or refinance their homes over the next six months
- Marketing campaigns using customer lists filtered against nearly any industry criterion (product type, geographic region, loan size, homeowner equity, etc.)
- Campaigns built on customer segmentation strategies that link PreTell scores with service delivery, pricing, and/or other business criteria
- Campaigns focused on proprietary, organization-specific category definitions, used either alone or in combination with industry criteria
- Cross-product retention campaigns made possible by the fact that PreTell scores are normalized to be consistent across product types and markets
PreTell can be set to score portfolios or customer segments periodically—monthly, weekly, daily, even hourly—allowing retention managers to monitor likely customer behavior on a regular basis and generate timely targeted lists whenever circumstances warrant a fresh marketing approach.
PreTell Case Study
PreTell has already demonstrated its ability to save big marketing dollars at GMAC Mortgage. Charles Stone, vice president of customer initiatives, explains that GMAC uses PreTell to reduce its marketing expense by tightly focusing marketing campaign mailing lists, enabling the company to mail only to true “at risk” customers, those on the verge of paying off, rather than to the entire portfolio. “PreTell gives us real visibility into the makeup of our servicing portfolio,” said Mr. Stone. “In the first half of 2006, PreTell scoring saved us more than $100,000 in mailing costs for a single marketing campaign—while significantly improving response rates.”
Cross-Sell Marketing
PreTell can also generate Cross-Sell Scores that identify and rank non-mortgage financial customers for targeted cross-sell marketing campaigns. The only data PreTell needs to start the cross-sell scoring process are names and addresses from existing lists:
- Credit card customers
- Demand-deposit account customers
- Auto loan customers
- Brokerage customers
- Retirement account customers
- Other non-mortgage customers
Matching the names and addresses with data from its vast loan performance, property, and demographic repositories, PreTell selects and appends information relevant to potential purchase behavior were these borrowers offered a tempting opportunity—refining cross-sell targeting (and offer creation) to a degree never before possible.
PreTell Reporting
PreTell generates easily customized, easy-to-interpret reports detailing the findings of every type of scoring run you perform. Sample reports:
- Prime Refi Score Distribution Report (PDF: 11KB)
- Prime Refi Mover Analysis by Avg Current Balance (PDF: 32KB)
- State Level AltA Geography Report (PDF: 16KB)
- Subprime Refi Mover Analysis by Current LTV (PDF: 33KB)
- Subprime Comined Score Distribution Report (PDF: 11KB)
Customer Acquisition
PreTell Cross-Sell Scores can also be used to create surgically targeted customer acquisition marketing campaigns based on third-party and other non-customer prospect lists. Starting with undifferentiated name and address lists, PreTell accesses mortgage, property, and demographic data to identify mortgage-product prospects by determining:
- Which individuals own property
- Which property owners are likely to prepay their mortgages
- Which prepayers are trying to raise capital and which want to move
By culling lists of thousands—or millions—of names, PreTell creates much smaller, tightly focused lists of prospects likely to act on your mortgage-related offer. Savings in mailing costs alone can range from the merely significant to heroic, budget-rewriting amounts, depending on the size of the potential market.
New customer acquisition savings can include those from dramatic response-rate increases if you also leverage PreTell scores to tailor your offers to the needs and desires of specific sub-groups within the final list.
PreTell Delivery Options
PreTell is available either as software installed inside your firewall or as a secure online service, available 24/7 from any Internet-connected computer:
Installed Software
The PreTell Scoring Platform is a complete software package that integrates seamlessly with existing IT infrastructures, providing highly secure, password-protected, enterprise-wide user access. PreTell's intuitive interface enables non-specialist users to initiate sophisticated prepayment scoring projects handily, including automatic updating.
Using the PreTell Scoring Platform, users throughout the organization can:
- Assess portfolio valuations
- Create profitable securitizations
- Gauge risk management effectiveness
- Evaluate and strengthen customer retention
- Design cross-sell and customer acquisition campaigns
PreTell software also integrates seamlessly with customer-facing systems, enabling regular automated delivery of prepayment scores into an organization’s trading, risk management, call center, marketing, operational, and accounting systems.
Online Service from First American's Vector
LoanPerformance offers PreTell’s retention scoring through First American’s popular, web-accessible Vector™ platform. This capability allows users to submit loan portfolios online—using a simple, almost completely automated process—in order to generate PreTell Retention Scores for evaluating and upgrading customer retention programs.
The secure Vector platform, accessible 24/7 from any web-enabled computer, does not affect internal IT infrastructure in any way—with all updating of application functionality and available models happening behind-the-scenes. Online delivery of PreTell scoring is an attractive and convenient option for companies with limited IT resources or that don’t want to commit those resources to managing and maintaining installed software.
Product Brief
Identify yourself on the accompanying form (name, company, email only), then download a PDF of the PreTell Product Brief (420KB).
For More Information
To learn more about PreTell, please email us or give us a call at the appropriate number for your geographic area.
